The estimator’s apparent shortfall: review the basis and current forecast
In week five, the parkade project manager sees the formwork-hour forecast exceeding the estimate. The quantities appear unchanged, but the estimate used a rate from another slab arrangement. Management needs an early forecast, and the estimator needs a chance to explain the original basis.
Take a checked comparison to the estimator and ask for their reading before deciding the cause. Match quantities, scope, rate assumptions and actual conditions, then present the reconciled forecast and remaining uncertainty to management. A joint memo is useful where both agree; it should not conceal differences or delay urgent reporting. Keep the estimator involved in pricing feasible responses instead of turning a forecast correction into a contest over whose number was right.
Make the internal conversation about the matched gap
- Compare like scope and quantities. Reconcile the estimate, current package and remaining work. Identify changed scope, coding errors and omitted items separately. A higher cost forecast does not prove the original estimate was short if the job being compared has changed.
- Show the relevant assumptions. Bring the original production basis, planned resources and observed conditions. State what is confirmed and what remains a hypothesis. Do not call a rate wrong merely because it came from another project; explain the difference that needs examination.
- Ask the estimator's account. Review the comparison together and invite missing information. Identify agreed facts and unresolved explanations. If management needs an immediate update, send the known position with uncertainty clearly stated rather than waiting for a perfect consensus.
- Prepare the forecast and memo. Reconcile the present cost outlook with the approved reporting basis. Explain the movement, cause under review, feasible actions and decisions required. Use a joint note only where its wording is genuinely agreed; name unresolved points without personal accusation.
- Keep recovery separate from recognition. Correct the forecast through the authorized process even if a saving is proposed. Ask the estimator and project team to test the action's scope, cost and feasibility. Record owners and dates; a suggested improvement should not erase the current exposure before it is supported.
The first comparison with the estimator
Common mistakes
- Comparing changed work with an unchanged estimate.
- Hiding disagreement to obtain two names on a memo.
- Booking an unsupported recovery as a saving.
Checklist
The shortfall conversation's evidence
- Matched scope and quantities.
- Original and current assumptions.
- Estimator's account considered.
- Checked forecast and uncertainty.
- Recovery proposal kept separate.
- Management decision owner and date.
Check your understanding
The estimator proposes a recovery that might save the whole gap. Should you leave the forecast unchanged?
